As someone that started collecting data about the turnover of head teachers way back in the 1980s, and added deputy headteacher posts in the 1990s, and when the Assistant head grade was created added those to my dataset, the latest research from the DfE on leadership turnover is very welcome. School Leadership retention, Reporting year 2024 – Explore education statistics – GOV.UK

However, it comes with a health warning. The methodology section contains the following

Exploratory analysis of Teacher Pension Scheme (TPS ….. suggests that the number of head teachers still in service but not being reported in the School Workforce Census has been increasing in recent years, substantially impacting the trends seen in this release. School Leadership retention: methodology – Explore education statistics – GOV.UK

This warning needs to be borne in mind when considering the trends of length of service in post. The DfE data also excluded headteachers on a temporary contract, and those over 50 where retirement is likely to be their next career move.

On the face of it headteachers are spending less time in post.

Primary
Year of Census	Base	% 1 Year	% 5 year
2011	974	93.7%	78.8%
2012	1075	92.4%	77.0%
2013	1177	91.1%	76.4%
2014	1302	90.2%	73.3%
2015	1311	90.5%	74.4%
2016	1349	89.6%	73.9%
2017	1404	87.8%	71.6%
2018	1262	88.3%	70.0%
2019	1219	90.2%	70.0%
2020	966	89.2%	z
2021	1114	89.2%	z
2022	1414	88.9%	z
2023	1273	89.7%	z
2024	1199	z	z

Primary head teachers in post one year after appointment seem to be around 4% less for those appointed in 2023 compared with the class of 2011. After five years, there is around an 8% decline from nearly 79% to 70%, although we have yet to see the effect of covid on turnover.

Secondary
Year of Census	Base	% 1 Year	% 5 year
2011	240	91.2%	65.0%
2012	289	91.0%	64.7%
2013	327	87.2%	62.1%
2014	378	85.4%	61,4%
2015	384	86.7%	62.0%
2016	430	84.7%	60.5%
2017	437	84.9%	63.6%
2018	440	85.0%	60.2%
2019	421	87.6%	62.5%
2020	317	90.2%	z
2021	329	83.9%	z
2022	404	84.9%	z
2023	416	85.6%	z
2024	419	z	z

For the secondary sector, turnover after one year has increased by nearly six per cent, and by around 5% after five years. In this respect, secondary teacher seems more likely to stay in post longer.

This is not surprising, as an appointment to a secondary headship historically was less likely to lead to another appointment, whereas in the primary sector many heads were first appointed to a small school and then took a subsequent headship in a larger school.

However, the defining feature of the period under discussion is the transfer of a large number of schools from maintained school status to becoming an academy. The next decade will help explain where that period of change was a temporary change in turnover rates or the creation of a new landscape where headteachers move more frequently.

The DfE research also has analysis on whether headteachers remain in any posts in a school within the sector. Again, secondary heads are more likely, (as retirements are excluded), to remain in a secondary school, whereas primary teachers are now less likely than in 2011 to remain in a school. It would be interesting to know where those teachers are now employed, and whether they are still working in education.

No doubt the pressure on the primary sector has been harder for heads to deal with than for their secondary colleagues since many primary schools do not have the same range of support staff as their secondary colleagues. Many more may have also had to content with the outcomes of an ofsted visit.  

This is a useful dataset, but it should be made more comprehensive by ensuing all MATs complete the School Workforce Census and that new categories of posts, such as Executive Headteacher, are captured within the census.