The DfE has published some interesting statistics about entrants to higher education level courses from those domiciled in England. Higher Level Learners in England, Academic year 2023/24 – Explore education statistics – GOV.UK
Overall, numbers during the period from 2015-16 to the end of 2023-24 increased from 728,140 to
| time_period | qualification_aim | number_of_entrants |
| 201516 | Total | 728140 |
| 201617 | Total | 745505 |
| 201718 | Total | 750370 |
| 201819 | Total | 765155 |
| 201920 | Total | 769200 |
| 202021 | Total | 859745 |
| 202122 | Total | 844070 |
| 202223 | Total | 843220 |
| 202324 | Total | 838200 |
| increase | 110060 |
838,200. This was an increase of 110,060. However not all types of qualification showed the same increase.
Apprenticeships across the board showed an increase from 26,870 in 2015-2106
| time_period | qualification_aim | number_of_entrants |
| 201516 | Apprenticeship | 26870 |
| 201617 | Apprenticeship | 36075 |
| 201718 | Apprenticeship | 47090 |
| 201819 | Apprenticeship | 73820 |
| 201920 | Apprenticeship | 81315 |
| 202021 | Apprenticeship | 97490 |
| 202122 | Apprenticeship | 104980 |
| 202223 | Apprenticeship | 111360 |
| 202324 | Apprenticeship | 120420 |
To 120,420 entrants by 2023-24.
However, for First degrees, numbers were falling by 2023-24
| time_period | qualification_aim | number_of_entrants | |
| 201516 | First Degree (excluding Integrated Master’s Degree) | 374805 | |
| 201617 | First Degree (excluding Integrated Master’s Degree) | 375720 | |
| 201718 | First Degree (excluding Integrated Master’s Degree) | 377795 | |
| 201819 | First Degree (excluding Integrated Master’s Degree) | 380295 | |
| 201920 | First Degree (excluding Integrated Master’s Degree) | 391625 | |
| 202021 | First Degree (excluding Integrated Master’s Degree) | 426630 | |
| 202122 | First Degree (excluding Integrated Master’s Degree) | 427295 | |
| 202223 | First Degree (excluding Integrated Master’s Degree) | 427625 | |
| 202324 | First Degree (excluding Integrated Master’s Degree) | 422700 | |
The peak year was 2021-22, and since then there has been a slight fall in numbers. Over the next few years, once the current bulge works its way through the school system, numbers of home domiciled entrants may fall further, adding to a loss of income for some degree awarding institutions.
These institutions already seem to be losing income from Master’s Degrees
| Master’s Degree including integrated degrees | 201516 | 87490 |
| 201617 | 113415 | |
| 201718 | 114625 | |
| 201819 | 113365 | |
| 201920 | 115170 | |
| 202021 | 139260 | |
| 202122 | 123895 | |
| 202223 | 117155 | |
| 202324 | 114275 |
The 2023-24 enrolment was some 25,00 below the peak recorded during the covid year 2020-21 and more in line with the longer-term trend.
Enrolments in doctors from those domiciled in England has shown an upward trend.
| time_period | qualification_aim | number_of_entrants |
| 201516 | Doctorate | 11900 |
| 201617 | Doctorate | 12200 |
| 201718 | Doctorate | 12735 |
| 201819 | Doctorate | 13770 |
| 201920 | Doctorate | 12675 |
| 202021 | Doctorate | 13530 |
| 202122 | Doctorate | 12925 |
| 202223 | Doctorate | 12655 |
| 202324 | Doctorate | 12920 |
As with Master’s degrees, there was a spike in enrolments in 2020-21, following on from another spike in 2018-19.
The data on enrolments for postgraduate courses in Education whether PGCE or PGDE are slightly concerning
| Postgraduate Education courses | 201516 | 21870 |
| 201617 | 20005 | |
| 201718 | 20725 | |
| 201819 | 21570 | |
| 201920 | 20775 | |
| 202021 | 25360 | |
| 202122 | 21925 | |
| 202223 | 15925 | |
| 202324 | 13705 |
It is not clear whether the reduction in primary ITT is partly responsible for the decline in entrants or whether there has been a change in registrations for school-based trainees? Again, the spike in recruitment during covid is very marked. However, as the notes indicate the 2022/23 academic year saw a larger number of data quality issues compared to other years. Therefore, we advise caution when comparing higher education figures across the time series. It is now clear whether or not the ITT numbers suffered from data quality issues.
John Howson 