Last September I reviewed the statistics available at that time from UCAS for post-graduate teacher preparation courses. UCAS has now published the end of cycle reports for the 2016-17 cycle. In September, I commented that ‘what is especially worrying is the level of reported ‘conditional placed’ applicants in the September figures; as high as 20% in some subjects.’
With the new data now available, it is now possible to track what appears to have happened to these ‘conditional placed applicants’? The good news is that many seem to have migrated into the ‘placed’ column rather than disappeared into the ‘other’ group that includes those rejected. I assume that this means most were able to meet with the conditions placed on their offer, whether the skills test, degree class or some other requirement. Overall, the number of placed applicants increased between September 2017 statistics and the end of cycle report by 3,090. That is about 60% of the conditionally placed applicants in the September statistics.
There are significant differences between the types of providers in how important converting ‘conditional placed offers’ to ‘placed’ applicants is in the overall scheme of things.
| Primary | Placed Sept 2017 | Placed End of Cycle | Difference | % Increase |
| HE | 5740 | 6070 | 330 | 6% |
| SCITT | 920 | 1180 | 260 | 28% |
| SCHOOL DIRECT FEE | 2970 | 3350 | 380 | 13% |
| SCHOOL DIRECT SALARY | 1330 | 1610 | 280 | 21% |
| Secondary | Placed Sept 2017 | Placed End of Cycle | Difference | % Increase |
| HE | 6820 | 7400 | 580 | 9% |
| SCITT | 1210 | 1750 | 540 | 45% |
| SCHOOL DIRECT FEE | 3180 | 3760 | 580 | 18% |
| SCHOOL DIRECT SALARY | 750 | 960 | 210 | 28% |
Source: UCAS September 2017 and End of Cycle Report
What is also interesting is to compare the End of Cycle number with the DfE’s ITT census for 2017 published in November.
| Primary | Placed End of Cycle | ITT Census 2017 | Difference |
| HE | 6070 | 5840 | -230 |
| SCITT | 1180 | 1440 | 260 |
| SCHOOL DIRECT FEE | 3350 | 3410 | 60 |
| SCHOOL DIRECT SALARY | 1610 | 1705 | 95 |
| Secondary | Placed End of Cycle | ITT Census 2017 | Difference |
| HE | 7400 | 7105 | -295 |
| SCITT | 1750 | 1970 | 220 |
| SCHOOL DIRECT FEE | 3760 | 3870 | 110 |
| SCHOOL DIRECT SALARY | 960 | 1080 | 120 |
Sources: UCAS End of Cycle Report and DfE ITT Census
By the time of the census, higher education appeared to have lost applicants, but all other routes reported more than through UCAS. This discrepancy merits further investigation to understand whether some routes are by-passing the UCAS system, perhaps for late applications?
What isn’t present in these figures is a breakdown by subject of acceptance rates. However we do know that of the 41,700 applicants with a domicile in England, 24,870 or 60% were accepted.
There were some interesting questions to be asked about regional acceptance rates
| By UK domicile region | PLACED | ALL | % PLACED |
| WALES | 1300 | 2020 | 64% |
| SOUTH WEST | 2380 | 3710 | 64% |
| EAST ENGLAND | 2580 | 4140 | 62% |
| NORTH EAST | 1270 | 2050 | 62% |
| EAST MIDLANDS | 2080 | 3360 | 62% |
| SOUTH EAST | 3650 | 5900 | 62% |
| NORTH WEST | 3460 | 5630 | 61% |
| WEST MIDLANDS | 2760 | 4520 | 61% |
| ALL UK | 26800 | 44750 | 60% |
| YORKSHIRE & THE HUMBER | 2490 | 4320 | 58% |
| LONDON | 4200 | 8090 | 52% |
Source: UCAS End of Cycle Report
Why was the percentage so high in the South West and so low in London, where teachers are really needed?
It would be really helpful if more of this data was made widely available, especially on a subject by subject basis for applicants and not just applications as the different number of applications that applicants may make can distort the data.
However, with the current cycle looking worse than the 2017 cycle, what happens over the next six months is going to be of great interest to everyone interested in teacher supply.
John Howson 
Many thanks for raising the issues of UCAS vs Census particularly if ITT providers are going be held to account for their rejection rates in shortage subjects.
I’d contacted DfE for a comment on differences in Census and EoC data in science subjects. School-led have 100 or do more on the census than EoC. The response is below. No Single subject does not account for the difference
From:ittstatistics.publications@education.gov.uk
Date: 9 April 2018 12:02:29
Subject: Fewer UCAS applicants than trainees in the ITT Census
You are probably aware that UCAS and the ITT Census use different methodologies so this fact alone will produce slightly different results.
A major difference relates to who completes the forms; on UCAS these are completed by applicants on an ongoing basis and the ITT Census is completed once by the provider of ITT, be it a school, SCITT or HEI; These two groups may have a different understanding of their course route or more likely, they may have switched courses and not informed UCAS.
Other factors could be subject mappings – the subjects in Census and UCAS are different. We try to map both into the same subject groups, so the mappings may not be perfect. For example, there are courses in the UCAS data that are just advertised as ‘Science’ courses so we can’t assign a specific subject. These are reported in the UCAS data referenced as ‘No single subject assigned’. In the ITT Census, more detail has to be provided, so the providers will have to report these trainee under one of the Science subjects.
UCAS could also be suppressing figures less than 3 in the table below – e.g. there could be a small number of applicants awaiting a decision.
All in all, these two data sources are different and are not directly comparable.
Mark,
Thanks for the response. I agree that they use different methodologies even though you might expect a degree of synergy would be helpful. I am not sure that they are totally correct in relation to who tells UCAS what as presumably offers are noted by the provider as well as the applicant.
I tried to persuade UCAS to provide the level of detail that there was in the old GTTR days when the new system started, but failed. Not knowing applicant numbers for subjects is unhelpful. applicants ought also to know the potential number of places being offered by providers to help make choices about where to apply.
John