The government has finally published the ITT allocations and associated Teacher Supply Numbers for 2017-18 recruitment onto UCAS recruited teacher preparation courses. This year they have chosen not to reveal allocations to Teach First, although they do say that they will publish recruitment numbers in the ITT census. At the same time the government has also published the Teacher Supply Model (TSM) outcome and methodology for 2017-18 and forward looking implications for teacher supply into the middle of the next decade based upon present assumptions. More of that in a later post.
As far as the TSM for 2017-18 is concerned, there are reductions in the TSM compared with the previous year in Art & Design (not a surprise); Business Studies (probably a mistake based on TeachVac data) and Design & Technology. There are increases in English; Geography; History; Religious Education and Primary. All other subject areas are probably in line with the previous year.
However, and this may have been the reason for the delay in publication compared with previous years, the overall allocations are often wildly in excess of the TSM number as this table revels.
| Subject | TSM number | UG allocations | PG allocations | Overall Allocation as at 19th February 2017 | Allocation as % of TSM |
| Art & Design | 577 | 0 | 1216 | 1216 | 211% |
| Biology | 1188 | 15 | 2339 | 2354 | 198% |
| Business Studies | 218 | 0 | 762 | 762 | 350% |
| Chemistry | 1053 | 27 | 2468 | 2495 | 237% |
| Classics | 69 | 0 | 91 | 91 | 132% |
| Computing | 723 | 139 | 1924 | 2083 | 288% |
| Design & Technology | 917 | 65 | 1622 | 1687 | 184% |
| Drama | 345 | 0 | 440 | 440 | 128% |
| English | 2426 | 75 | 3763 | 3838 | 158% |
| Geography | 1531 | 12 | 422 | 2434 | 159% |
| History | 1160 | 0 | 1393 | 1393 | 120% |
| Mathematics | 3102 | 258 | 4879 | 5164 | 166% |
| Languages | 1514 | 128 | 3070 | 3198 | 211% |
| Music | 393 | 20 | 922 | 942 | 240% |
| Other Subjects | 812 | 0 | 1404 | 1404 | 173% |
| Physical Education | 999 | 137 | 1157 | 1294 | 130% |
| Physics | 1055 | 84 | 3124 | 3208 | 304% |
| Religious Education | 643 | 45 | 1552 | 1597 | 248% |
| Secondary All | 18726 | 1005 | 34548 | 35600 | 190% |
| Primary | 12121 | 5667 | 15468 | 21135 | 174% |
| All | 30847 | 6672 | 50016 | 56735 | 184% |
Source DfE allocations published 9th May 2017
As the regional breakdown isn’t easy to determine by subject, it isn’t clear whether the Public Accounts Committee view about regional need has been met in the overall allocations or whether some areas will do better than others.
As we know, the 2017-18 recruitment round is proving challenging, so the over allocations in many subjects are likely to be of little overall importance whatever their regional effects, except that is to the trainees paying out £9000+ for their fees and then competing for jobs next spring.
The 6,335 trainees offered a salaried place with no doubt be alright, as will those with the generous bursaries, but those in the other subjects ought to look long and hard at the cost of training to be a teacher compared with the likelihood of finding a teaching post in 2018 or 2020 for those offered an undergraduate place. Of course, without the Teach First or High Potential Teacher Training route as we must now seemingly call the scheme data, they cannot really know how well the odds of finding a teaching post will stack up next year.
John Howson 
John, why have they not chosen to reveal allocations to Teach First? Any particular reason?
Last year was the first time that they had included them in the overall totals. They have said they will include recruitment in the November ITT census. I guess this is something for a PQ once parliament returns. With so much over-allocation the TF numbers in some subjects would just distort the figures even more as between supply and need.
At TeachVac we track the vacancies daily against both overall recruitment to ITT and what we call the free pool available to schools without access to Teach First and School Direct Salaried trainees. Business Studies is negative already and English is at a critically low number for the free pool, showing schools looking to fill an unexpected January vacancy will struggle in many parts of the country.
Could Teach First recruitment then be geared to filling these shortages?
Wouldn’t the universities partnered with Teach First have to know its allocations, by the way?
The answer to the second point is yes, but not the rest of us. on the first point it is both yes and no. In subjects where insufficient trainees are recruited TF helps swell numbers. But, take a subject such as History where allocated places are likely to be filled and are in excess of the TSM number. There the TF numbers just add to the overall total and make it more of a challenge for some trainees not allocated to schools to find a teaching job at the end of their course.
John Howson