Early applications to train as a teacher show positive signs

Life has been a bit hectic for me recently. A week in The Gulf helping deliver a workshop for the British Council and since my return time spent doing battle with what I now know to be an abscess in my jaw; painful and debilitating.  This has meant that the November UCAS data has taken second place to other matters when it comes to writing my blog. However, I have now found time to look at what has been happening at the start of the 2016/17 recruitment round.

It is ironic, to say the least, to see data for November, since for many years this was regarded as too early in the recruitment round to be of any meaningful use. That wasn’t the case, but it helped save some blushes until the end of January when applications data was always published. As regular readers know, the battle over when data on acceptances should appear or indeed if it should appear at all is much more recent.

Anyway, how many more applicants were queuing up to train as a teacher when the UCAS scheme for 2017 opened this autumn than last year? The good news is that for applicants domiciled in England there were 11,660 in the system by mid-November 2016 compared with 7,840 at the similar point in 2015. That’s 3,820 more or an increase of nearly a half. Applications from those over 30 have remained static, but there has been a healthy increase in applications from young graduates. There were 3,390 male applicants this year by min-November compared with 2,100 last year at that time. There is one little caveat in that there is five days difference in the reporting dates between 2015 and 2016, with 2016 being that much later, so one would expect slightly higher figures, but not this level of increase.

Applications have increased from 22,510 at this point in 2015, to 33,840 in November 2016, with growth in applications for both primary and secondary courses. Candidates may make up to three applications, so the growth in applications seems lower than the increase in applicants, suggesting that some applicants may be making fewer applications. Applications are up for all the routes, with HE courses still attracting the bulk of the applications, up from 11,130 to 16,470, whereas applications for School Direct Salaried are up from 3,040 to 4,680. Interestingly, one of the smaller increases if for School Direct Salaried places in the secondary sector where the increase has been from 920 applications at this point last year to 1,140 this year.

The secondary subjects with the largest number of applications this year, as ever, are PE – up from 4,080 to 5,950; history – up from 1,260 to 1,830 and English – up from 1,350 to 1,870. For the first two subjects there will once again be a scramble for places and it is not helpful for the sector to be unaware of the overall total. Sadly, in Design & Technology, there may be fewer applications than at this point in 2015.

It is always good to be able to report an upward trend in applications. The issue is whether it can be sustained or just represents an early flurry of young applicants geared up to apply as soon as the recruitment round opens. By the December figures, we should start to have a clearer picture, but it will be the end of February before serious discussions on the likely outcome of the recruitment round can take place. Hopefully, we will still be seeing more interest in teaching than in recent years and will also know the number of places that need to be filled.

 

GTTR: The Final Report

 

UCAS have now published the final statistical report on the 2013 applications for the GTTR teacher preparation scheme. This was the scheme that operated for nearly two decades across England, Wales and Scotland. As from the 2014 entry, the GTTR scheme has been replaced by the new, and in England, vastly more complex scheme designed to allow more choice to applicants.

The GTTR Report allows us to put some flesh on the bare bones of the DfE’s ITT November 2013 census, especially in the secondary sector where there are relatively few undergraduate places and most providers’ applications, except the lamented OU course , were handled by GTTR. The first point to note is the confirmation of the continued decline in applications that peaked at more than 67,000 for the 2010 entry. By the 2013 round, applications were down to 52,254; below the pre-recession figure of 53,931, achieved in the 2007 round. Both the number of men and of women applying was below the 2007 levels in 2013, although applications from men to primary courses seemed to have held up better than for applications to secondary courses.

Because of changes in allocations, the ratio of acceptances to applications actually fell by one point to 44% in 2013. This is still some way below the 49% acceptance rate of 2008, achieved in the run up to the recession. If allocations have reached their nadir, then it seems likely that the acceptance ratio will move higher unless either more applicants can be attracted to teaching or places are left unfilled. Much will depend upon the attitude of schools in the School Direct programme to marginal candidates, and whether they sense that enough progress can be made during the preparation to make it worth trying to help them become acceptable teachers.

Within the data are some worrying figures. Some 49% of women, but 56% of men that applied were not accepted. Sadly, the report doesn’t make clear how many could not find a course because they left their application too late, and how many were considered not good enough. Even more worrying is the data on ethnicity. While 40,897 of the more than 52,000 applicants classified themselves as White, leaving around 10,000 from a defined ethnic group other than White, the percentages accepted differ sharply between the groups. Some 46.7% of White applicants were accepted, compared with just 17.2% of Black African applicants, and 28.7 of Black Caribbean applicants. At the subject level the figures are even starker. In history, curiously seen as an Arts subject by GTTR rather than a social science or humanity subject, perhaps no more than three Black African or Black Caribbean applicant or those shown as White and Black Caribbean were accepted anywhere in the country out of the 30 or so that applied compared with a better than one in four chance for the White group. As in the past this may reflect the relatively narrow range of institutions applicants from some ethnic groups apply to, and the issues that this causes. For instance of the 4,708 applications generated by the 1,510 Black African applicants, some 1,664 were made to just six providers in the London area. In one case, 344 applications yielded 23 acceptances.

One other trend worthy of note was that applicants over the age of 30, the classic career changers, declined as a proportion of all applicants from 22% in 2012 to 19% in 2013. This makes the current attitudes of new graduates towards teaching as a career even more important than during the recession. At least, the number of mature applicants is holding up so far for the 2014 entry, accounting for 22% of those that had applied by February.