Should Labour be focusing more on the challenges within the state school system rather than trumpeting its desire to remove some benefits from private schools? One such challenge is around the chance of a pupil in a non-selective secondary school in an area identified by the DfE as a ‘highly selective area of or secondary schooling’ progressing to a sustained Level 4 or higher qualification from school or college. Level 4 and above qualifications include, undergraduate degrees (a Level 6 qualification); apprenticeship at level 4 or higher; or any other qualification at Level 4 or 5.

The DfE definition of non-selective schools in highly selective area includes all non-selective schools in local authorities with a high level of selection (where 25% or more of state-funded secondary places are in state-funded selective schools). These local authorities are Bexley, Buckinghamshire, Kent, Lincolnshire, Medway, Poole, Slough, Southend-on-Sea, Sutton, Torbay, Trafford and Wirral.

There are selective schools in other areas, but they don’t past this test, such as parts of Essex, Enfield and Birmingham.

The table below is taken from Progression to higher education or training, Academic year 2020/21 – Explore education statistics – GOV.UK (explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk) has been sorted to rank institutions by their outcomes for the type of institution in terms of a sustained Level 4 or above destination. (6 months in a two year period.) The two year period ended just after the covid pandemic started in the spring of 2020, so that may have had some effect on the outcomes.

However, the FE colleges produce the bulk of young people entering the workforce or becoming a NEET (Not in employment, education or training) at the end of Year 13.

Kenneth Baker’s experiment with 14-18 schools, whether studio schools or University Technical Colleges, as a sector produce slightly better outcomes in terms of destinations, but not by much. Slightly ahead of this group is the non-selective schools in highly selective areas, most of which were once known as secondary modern schools.

Institution type	Sustained a level 4 or higher destination	Progression score *
Other FE sector colleges	47.0	-3.1
Total Mainstream Colleges	54.9	-1.2
Studio Schools	55.6	1.2
University Technical College	59.3	1.6
Non-selective school in highly selective area	62.0	-4.0
Total Schools and colleges	66.0	0.0
Sponsored academy	69.4	1.1
Sixth form colleges	73.1	3.4
Other non-selective school	73.5	1.0
Total academies & free schools	74.6	0.7
Total Schools	74.6	0.9
LA maintained schools	74.9	1.9
Converter academy	75.7	0.4
Free 16-19	77.0	3.7
Free Schools	83.1	7.1
Selective school	88.5	2.4

Interestingly, Six Form Colleges, academies and free schools as a sector and other non-selective schools had very similar outcomes. Converter academies and the relatively small Free School sector do better than the average for schools, but, as might be expected, it is selective schools that have the highest ranking. Indeed, one might ask why their score isn’t even higher?

For parents aspiring to see their offspring continue in education after eighteen, there are some clear messages in terms of outcome by institution. For political parties espousing the concept of either levelling up or equality of opportunity the question of the value to society as a whole of selective schools probably ought to be at least as important as concerns about the benefits of private education, since it is state funding that is producing the range of outcomes.

My guess is that because of the current teacher supply crisis the next set of data post-covid will have seen the range become even greater than in this study.

* For an understanding of the progression score please consult the DfE documentation where there is a detailed explanation of how the score is calculated.