This is the time of year when the DfE updates its pupil projections. These are the numbers that identify the trends in the size of the school population. Changes in migration and in the birth rate are the two most important national drivers of the total school population.

Obviously, migration can have a more immediate effect on pupil numbers than changes in the number of live births. As a result, planning for changes in the birth rate is much easier than changes in migration. Let’s assume, for instance, that there is an influx of families from Hong Kong as a result of the changed political situation there. This might bring a sudden and unexpected influx of pupils. At the national level, such an influx might not be noticeable, but since migrants tend to cluster in communities, some areas might see a sudden increase in pupil numbers.

The government tries to plan for such eventualities by creating high and low variants of the different variables making up the pupil numbers.

Here are the headlines from the DfE analysis

Headline facts and figures from the 2020 national pupil projections 

• The nursery and primary school population has been rising since 2009 but has now plateaued, as the drop in births in 2013 feeds into the main school population, and is projected to drop for the whole projection period to 2030. The drop is steeper than previously projected due to lower births recorded since the end of 2016.
• The secondary school population began rising in 2016 and is projected to continue increasing until 2024 before gradually dropping until the end of the projection period. The peak and then fall is primarily due to the lower births seen in 2013 and beyond, which start to reach secondary school age in around 2025.
• The population in special schools has been increasing for a number of years, at least partly driven by the increase in the overall population, and this is projected to continue until 2024, before also very gradually dropping.

https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/national-pupil-projections

How steep will the drop in the primary school population be?

The low migration and low fertility variant produces a primary school population of 4,383,000, some 88,000 pupil less than the Principal projection. That could mean the need for between 4-5,000 fewer teachers across the primary sector unless funding was not tightly tied to pupil numbers.

Population of primary and secondary age in 2026

under the variant projections, England
	population in 2026	difference to principal
Projection	nursery & primary age	secondary age	nursery & primary age	secondary age
principal	4,471	3,218
low fertility	4,404	3,218	-67	0
high fertility	4,519	3,218	48	0
low migration	4,450	3,210	-21	-8
high migration	4,492	3,226	21	8
low population	4,383	3,210	-88	-8
high population	4,541	3,226	70	8
Source: national population projections (2020 model). Figures in 000s

https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/national-pupil-projections

However, at the other extreme, the primary population might be some 70,000 greater than the Principal projection. This would require more teachers, assuming funding is closely tied to pupil numbers.

In the secondary sector, there is less difference between the projections, as the pupils in the secondary sector by 2026 are already in the school system. Any significant change would be the result of changes in migration patterns.

Would I consider applying to university in the autumn to start an undergraduate degree in primary education in 2021? Well, there will still be a need for teachers, but if the birth rate continues to fall, perhaps as a result of concerns arising from the covid-19 pandemic and decisions on family size, then it might not seem as attractive a career is it did a few years ago.

Since most secondary sector teachers are prepared through postgraduate routes lasting around a year, there is less urgency to consider pupil numbers are a reason for evaluating teaching as a possible career.

Of course, if there is a drop in private school enrolments, there may be more pupils in the State sector, but also more teachers competing for jobs.

All this is at the national level for England. There are also regional differences to consider.